As the recession has worn on, businesspeople have become increasingly skeptical of "good" news. Most have not been willing to trust in occasional spikes in the manufacturing index or consumer market at the cost of precious dollars and scarce optimism - and understandably. "[I]s it insane to hold off on optimism when you're not sure whether another customer could bite the dust?" asks bag manufacturer Kevin Kelly in a May Newsweek Web Exclusive. The economy can do a lot in two months, however, and the early signs and tentative predictions of improvement that were made earlier this spring have held steady. Economic reports from July confirm that although the job market probably won't bottom out until mid 2010, the recession is indeed coming to a close. The ISM manufacturing index for July indicates manufacturing may be out of the red by the end of the month: July's index was 48.9, a full 5 points up from June and 1.1 points away from indicating positive economic growth. Confirming this market trend is a recent Reuters survey finding "large US industrial manufacturers are far more optimistic about domestic and global economics than they were three months ago". 43% of respondents indicated they were optimistic about this upcoming year's economy, a huge rise since last quarter's poll. More respondents also indicated plans for new hires, new investments and business expansions than in previous recession polls. A large number of manufacturing industries saw positive growth last month, among which were mineral products, paper and printing products, transportation equipment and appliances. [Continue Reading Article]

Two weeks ago economists were far more optimistic about the state of the US economy than they had been in a year. An average of over 75% of economists who were polled in a number of surveys predicted the end of the recession to hit before 2010. Let's check back in and see if these positive trends were a fluke or if they're here to stay. ChangeWave's second and third quarter Corporate Report reads "U.S. Economy Stabilizes - Longer Term Outlook Showing Dramatic Improvement." In essence, more companies are meeting their revenue plans, hiring new staff and predicting positive returns for the next quarter. As to exactly how many more, just take a look at the dramatic dip in the graphs below. [Continue Reading Article]

Last Friday we reviewed some statistics from Alliance News & Info, among other sources, indicating that our economic plummet may be coming to a close. Recent reportings from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) support this with similar findings, although the ISM is far more hesitant in declaring an end to the recession. "The decline in U.S. manufacturing is continuing to slow," reported Area Development Online on Tuesday. [Continue Reading Article]

The good news begins with business IT spending. According to yesterday’s Alliance News & Info, “U.S. corporate IT spending [is] in the process of rapidly stabilizing”. Twenty-four percent of participants in ChangeWave’s latest survey said they expect their company’s IT spending to decrease or flatline; sure, 24% doesn’t sound good to IT equipment manufacturers, but it sure beats the last survey’s 41%. Reversely, 15% of participants said they expect increases in their company’s IT spending, a 5% increase from the last survey, and a sigh of relief for technology manufacturers who’ve been watching demand plummet for nearly a year. [Continue Reading Article]

As the Wall Street Journal’s figures showed, consumers haven’t stopped buying entirely – in fact, their consumption has dropped far less than production has dropped. When businesses finally empty their inventories, they will face continuing demand – demand which they must meet. Consumers will force businesses to rebuild their inventories, causing the gears of industry and manufacturing to begin turning once more. Granted, Wall Street stocks and the job markets are still plummeting at alarming rates, and no one is quite sure when (or “if”, as many gloomy commentators have said) things will take a turn for the better. However, the inevitability of an inventory rebuild in the manufacturing community gives us in the world of B2B commerce some cause to hope. A recent issue of Alliance News & Info reported that while revenues, purchasing and jobs are still on a steep decline, there is evidence that the decline is beginning to level off. “The longer term economic outlook is beginning to show the first tiny signs of hope”, Alliance observed with caution. [Continue Reading Article]